Context: The MLB Draft just took place, and instead of the usual 40 rounds, this year’s draft had only 5 rounds. In addition, there’s a $20,000 signing bonus cap for all undrafted players who sign with a team after the draft. To put that in context, 6th round picks from 2019 received bonuses anywhere from $237,000 – $301,000. As you might imagine, there will be fierce competition among teams to sign great undrafted players at a rate far below historical levels.
This post is primarily for undrafted free agents of the 2020 MLB draft who are weighing their options about which team they want to sign with. This is not objective–I’ll make my case for why I think the San Francisco Giants present an opportunity that no other club does–but I also want it to be a resource for any player thinking through this decision.
For most of you, this decision will have a bigger impact on the trajectory of your career than any other decision you make during your time in this game. It’s worth thinking this one through carefully.
My background
Out of high school, I committed to play at Stanford, and got drafted by the Nationals in the 6th round of the 2007 draft (so, yes, there’s definitely the feeling that this 5 round thing wouldn’t have played in my favor). The Nationals let me attend Stanford while playing in their farm system, where I played through 2012. In 2013, I was drafted in the Minor League Rule V Draft by the Red Sox, then signed with the LA Dodgers, where I played the 2014 season, my last in professional baseball.
After spending a few years out of the game, I worked at Driveline, where I had previously trained as a pitcher in 2013, long before Driveline became what it is today. For the last year and a half, I’ve been an Analyst with the San Francisco Giants.
Your Decision
This is the way I’d frame your decision of which team to sign with:
Think of this as an optimization problem, where your objective is to pick the team that will make you the best player and, consequently, the most money over the course of your career.
In making this decision, here are three things to consider, ranked by importance.
- Pick the organization that will make you the best player.
The only thing that truly matters in your career is how well you play. This is one thing you just can’t fake. The reality is that there are maybe a handful of players a year that could play in the Big Leagues the day they get drafted. You’ll need to improve A LOT if you want to have a long Major League Career. So find an organization where you think that will happen.
- Pick an organization where you can get to the Big Leagues as quickly as possible.
By age 29, the performance of most Major League Baseball players starts to decline. If you’re going to play in the Big Leagues for a long time and make a lot of money in this game, you need to be in arbitration or a free agent in your prime years.
Find an organization that’s going to make you a better player in Year 1, and an organization with a history of moving players fast.
- Pick an organization that invests in its people and facilities
You’re signing up for a grind, and you’ll spend more time with your organization than you’ll spend anywhere else. The facilities, amenities, perks, and people around you will impact your mental and physical well-being. Pick an organization that’s demonstrated a history of investing in its people and giving them top-notch resources.
How do the Giants fit into this framework?
- Find the organization that will make you the best player.
Modern baseball players need coaches that understand way more than coaches of previous generations. Today’s coaches need to be fluent in analytics, probability, biomechanics, pitch design, swing design, and how to use technology, among other things.
With this in mind, the Giants have built an insanely talented and multi-dimensional staff with a broad set of skills and a long history of developing great Big League players.
With the Giants, you’ll optimize your body, you’ll improve your baseball skills, and your approach on the mound or in the box will be the one that gives you the highest probability of success.
With us, you’ll have a development plan rooted in data, with the sole purpose of helping you become the best player you can possibly be.
- Pick an organization where you can get to the Big Leagues as quickly as possible.
Your ability to reach the Big Leagues quickly depends mostly on your performance, so spend even more time on Question 1.
The Giants priority is to win at the Major League level. In 2019, we set an all-time NL record for most players used in a season, with 64. If you can help the Giants win games, you’ll be playing in San Francisco.
Here are two examples of Giants that played in the Big Leagues last year. With great performance, you can have a similar trajectory.
Conner Menez was a 14th round pick in 2016. He started 2018 in High-A, and a year later, pitched in the Major Leagues at age 24.
Logan Webb was a 4th Rd pick in 2014 at age 17. He opened 2018 at High-A, and by August 2019, was in the San Francisco Giants rotation at age 22.
- Pick an organization that invests in its people and facilities
Prior to the 2020 season, the Giants announced we would pay Minor Leaguers more than the minimum amount that MLB requires, in addition to providing free housing, or a housing stipend to all players. Almost no teams in baseball do this.
The Giants have invested a ton of resources to provide our players with the best environments possible. We’re in the middle of building a best-in-class Minor League complex in Scottsdale, fully equipped with a baseball research lab.
We also completed a full makeover to our Major League Spring Training complex. Saunas, steam rooms, float tanks, recovery rooms–they’re there not just to make you recover, but to make you feel comfortable in a place where you’ll spend countless hours over the next several years.
We have analysts at every affiliate, and the biggest field staff in MLB. We believe players get better with more hands on work, and have made investments accordingly.
Remember: you’re on a journey to be the best baseball player you can possibly be. You want to be in an environment with the tools, facilities, and people that make that possible.
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Hopefully this has helped you think through what’s important as you make this decision. I know it sucks to have to sign for less money, and if you’re optimizing for a short-term payout, you should go back to school, dominate next year, and sign for more money than you will this year.
But if you’re optimizing for the next decade of your career, you have an opportunity now that almost no player gets. If you believe that an organization will develop you better than other organizations, take control of your future and go. The upside of being even a little better–whether that’s the difference between making the Big Leagues or not, or getting to arbitration or not–is so much greater than the bonus money you’ll forgo by signing in 2020.
This might be your last true choice of where you get to play in your whole career. And if it’s with the Giants, you won’t be disappointed.